Modal verbs for deduction are used when trying to see whether something is true or not. The way we choose these modal verbs is an indication of how big we think the possibility is. Some modals of deductions about the past are must have, might have/may have, and can’t have/couldn’t have.
Compare:
She must be really exhausted from working all day. (present deduction) She must have been very exhaused when she had to work all day. (past deduction)
must have
Must have + past participle is used to express certainty about something.
She couldn’t find her purse. She must have left it at the restaurant. Allan must have had the flu. He didn’t show up at any of his appointments today. We’ve got enough money. Michelle must have saved on her meal earlier.
might have / may have
Might have or may have + past participle is used to express the possibility that something happened.
I might have bought the wrong brand. Can you please ask Mom to check? Joe thinks his wife may have left with her lover.
Note: Might have is the less formal form compared to may have. Could have is another possible form to be used in such context but it is not that very common.
can’t have / couldn’t have
Can’t have and couldn’t have + past participle are used to express that it is not possible for something to happen.
They can’t have left the party yet because their car is still outside. Andrea thought she saw her old university professor this morning but it couldn’t have been her – she moved abroad years ago.
We use CAN to make general statements about what is possible: Example: It can be very hot here in summer. (= It is sometimes very hot here in summer.) You can easily get lost in this city. (= People often get lost in this city.)
We also use CAN and CAN’T to talk about someone’s skill or general abilities: Example: He can speak two languages. She can dance. She can’t swim very well.
We use COULD to show that something is possible, but not certain: Example: They could come by bus. (= Maybe they will come by bus.) They could be at school. (= Maybe they are at school.)
We also use COULD to mean that we were able to do something in the past. Example: When she was 1, she could talk.
We use COULDN’T to mean that we weren’t able to do something in the past. Example: When he was 1, he couldn’t walk.
Use modals of deduction and speculation when we want to make a guessabout something. We choose the verb depending on how sure we are.
Deducing and speculating about the present
Combine modals of deduction and speculation must, might, could, may and then an infinitiveverb to deduce and speculate about an action that happens in the present.
modal (present) + infinitive
Below is a sample scenario using modals of deduction and speculation in present. Know the proper modal to use depending on how true you think that an action occurs.
You are waiting for Amanda with another friend, Danny. You ask Danny this question: Where is Amanda? Danny speculates:
She must be on her way here. (fairly sure this is a good guess)
She might arrive soon. (maybe)
She could be lost. (maybe)
She may be in the wrong place. (maybe)
She can’t be at home. (fairly sure this isn’t true)
Note that in this case, the opposite of ‘must’ is ‘can’t’.
Will / won’t
We use will and won’t when we are very sure.
He will be at school now.
Should / shouldn’t
We use should and shouldn’t to make an assumption about what is probably true, if everything is as we expect.
They should get there by now.
It shouldn’t take long to drive here.
This use of should isn’t usually used for negative events. Instead, it’s a better idea to use will.
Correct: The temperature will be too high today.
Incorrect: The temperature should be too high today.
Can
We use can for something that is generally possible, something we know sometimes happens.
The cost of living can be very high in big cities.
We do not use can to talk about specific possibilities.
Correct: Mom could be at the supermarket.
Incorrect: Mom can be at the supermarket.
Deducing and speculating about the past
Put together modals of deduction and speculation must, might, could, may, can’t and have and then a past participleverb to deduce and speculate about an action that occurred in the past.
modal (past) + have + past participle
It must haverained last night.
She might / might not haveregistered for the seminar.
They could havefinished the training if not for the technical issues.
You may / may not havedone the dishes this morning.
I can’t havewished ill of another person.
Below is a sample scenario using modals of deduction and speculation in the past. Know the proper modal to use.
Roy asked: Where was Sandra last night? Maria speculated:
Sandra must have forgotten about our appointment.
She might have worked late.
Sandra could have lost track of time.
She may have gotten sick.
She can’t have stayed at home.
Will
We use will for something in the past that we are very certain happened.
The parcel will have arrived before now.
Should / Shouldn’t
We use should and shouldn’t have to make an assumption about something that has probably happened, if everything is as we expect.
The plane should have left by now.
We shouldn’t have gone in that direction.
Could
We can use could + infinitive to talk about a general possibility in the past.
Labor could be low in the sixteenth century.
This is not used to talk about specific possibilities in the past. Instead, we use could + have + past participle.
He could have been working late.
(not: ‘could be’. As this is a specific possibility, ‘could be’ is present tense)
Modals of Deduction and Speculation Exercise
Answer this exercise on modals of deduction and speculation.
1. Their shop is easy to locate. It’s right around the corner. She _____ miss it!
a. might
b. can’t
c. must
2. Chris’s things are still here so he _____ gone home.
a. shouldn’t have
b. might have
c. can’t have
3. What a great show! They _____ go on a world tour.
a. can’t
b. might
c. must
4. She can’t remember the suspect’s face. But she _____ seen a distinguishing feature.
a. couldn’t have
b. must have
c. may have
5. It _____ be sugar-free. It has ice cream in it.
a. can’t
b. may not
c. must
6. Clara and Laura weren’t replying to my chat messages. Maybe they went to the movies or they _____ gone to a spa.
a. might have
b. couldn’t have
c. must have
7. Anthony is very stressed out lately. I am not sure but he _____ gone on vacation.
a. can’t have
b. might have
c. must have
8. Your sisters tell different versions of what happened. One of them _____ be lying.
a. must
b. may
c. could
9. I _____ known about this faulty wiring. I would have noticed it.
a. couldn’t have
b. must have
c. might have
10. Look at this piece of art. Maybe it’s Monet or it _____ be Van Gogh.